아프리카ㆍ중동
연구정보
[정치] Factors determining voter choice in South Africa’s 2024 national general elections
남아프리카공화국 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - University of Johannesburg 발간일 : 2024-05-01 등록일 : 2024-05-16 원문링크
This research brief presents the findings of wave 5 of the study to assess what factors are likely to influence voter
choice in the run up to South Africa’s 2024 national and provincial elections in May 2024. Researchers used the same
theoretical model that was developed and tested in the previous four waves in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Explanatory
theories of voting behaviour – why people vote for a particular party – include the rational choice theory. This theory
contends that voters make choices based on their self-interest, with a strong emphasis on prospective voters’ agency
(Patel et al., 2021). The clientelist theory is another widely posited explanation for voter party choice in South Africa.
Some researchers and political analysts argue that the social grants system constitutes a form of patronage or vote
buying (Brooks, 2023). The sociological model is also widely used to explain voting behaviour based on age, race,
gender, income, employment/unemployment, geographic location and education. Other explanations of voter choice
emphasise trust in government institutions, trust in the presidency and parliament, levels of corruption, and trust in
the party leader as possible reasons for party choice. In our explanatory model, this is referred to as governance, which
we go on to discuss in this research brief. Lastly, party loyalty has also been found to be influential in explaining voter
preferences in our previous surveys (Patel et al., 2021).
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
