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연구정보

[경제] Macro Poverty Outlook for Afghanistan : April 2023

아프가니스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2023-04-01 등록일 : 2023-04-21 원문링크

In Afghanistan, after a severe contraction in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 20.7 percent in 2021, signs had emerged by mid-2022 that the Afghan economy was settling around a fragile low-level equilibrium. Revenue collection by the Interim Taliban Administration (ITA) was at levels comparable with previous years. In addition, the exchange rate had stabilized, exports increased, and imports showed resilience. Yet these signs of stabilization could not override the substantial pressures Afghan families faced in sustaining their livelihoods. The contraction of the aid-driven service and security sectors had widespread spillovers into other sectors of the economy, affecting the entire welfare distribution. Recent data suggest that aggregate demand has weakened in winter as activities around agriculture, construction, and other associated sectors have slowed. However, this seems broadly in line with seasonal trends. This Macro Poverty Outlook for presents GDP, debt and fiscal forecasts and examines the implications for critical economic and social concepts such as growth, poverty reduction and macroeconomic stability.

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