러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[경제] The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
몰도바 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - ECFR 발간일 : 2022-07-29 등록일 : 2022-09-07 원문링크
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion; or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios.
The three most plausible Russian aggression scenarios are: a military action launched from Transnistria; a local, elite-focused rebellion similar to Russia’s exploits in Donbas in 2014, likely centring on the Moldovan region of Gagauzia; and popular unrest stoked by Russia and containing violent elements.
The EU and Moldova underestimate the risk of one or more of these happening.
The EU’s preferred “resilience” approach to hybrid threats lacks an active component that can effectively respond to, and repel, Russian aggression.
Moldova should draw on Western support to implement an “active resilience” policy to better confront and undermine Russian actions.
The EU should set up a CSDP mission in Moldova comprising both civilian and military components that helps the Moldovan authorities plan and conduct security threat assessments and protect against military and hybrid risks.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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