연구정보
[외교/안보] Negotiating the Restoration Of the Iran Nuclear Deal
이란 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Middle East Policy 발간일 : 2024-08-16 등록일 : 2024-09-06 원문링크
There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United States four years later. This article argues that two factors account for the failure to renew the JCPOA. One is the 2021 change of presidency in Iran from the reformist Hassan Rouhani to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi. The other is the transformed international environment that provided Iran with opportunities to align with China and Russia. While it suited Iran to continue the nuclear talks to minimize the risk of more punitive actions, Tehran has recalculated its interests and taken a hard line on a potential new deal. The process has grown more complicated with Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict's possible expansion across the region, and the election of a new Iranian president. The analysis concludes that Iran is unlikely to return to the JCPOA.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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