러시아ㆍ유라시아

※ 출처 : Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, the biweekly journal of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

A record number of people have applied for registration to run for the presidential post in Kyrgyzstan. As the end of the registration period approaches, the number of qualified candidates is decreasing, with most applicants being unable to fulfill the registration requirements. Despite the authorities’ promises to ensure free and fair elections, it is evident that the main contenders started campaigning before the authorized period.

83 people expressed their intentions to run for the presidential election scheduled for October 30, 2011 in Kyrgyzstan. 16 were nominated by political parties, while the rest are independent self-nominees. Most of these applicants are unknown to the wider public and include politicians, entrepreneurs, journalists and even 19 unemployed. However, the number has dropped significantly to 37 as most of the would-be candidates were not able to submit on time a list of 30,000 signatures of support required by the newly-adopted law “On elections of the President and the Parliament”.

Besides supporters’ signatures, applicants must pay an election deposit of 100,000 soms (about US$ 2,200) before the official registration. After paying the registration deposit, potential candidates must pass the mandatory state language (Kyrgyz) exam which is to be televised nationwide. The language test consists of three parts: writing, speaking and reading exercises. The official registration of candidates will end on September 25 – the starting date of the pre-election campaign period.
 
Such registration requirements caused the indignation of some applicants. On September 5, several would-be candidates organized a protest in front of the parliament’s building demanding to soften the qualification requirements. Damira Toktosunova, one of the possible presidential candidates, stated that under the given regulations, it is impossible for an ordinary citizen to run for the presidential office. These legal provisions undermine the constitutional right of citizens to be elected as the head of the country, she claimed.
 
Despite the high number of would-be candidates, only a few of them have real chances to contest the ballot. According to local analysts, the two main contenders are considered to be the current Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev, with great support in the country’s north and the leader of the “Ata Jurt” party Kamchybek Tashiev, whose support base is concentrated in southern Kyrgyzstan. However, as analysts contend, there are a few other popular politicians including the Socialists’ leader Omurbek Tekebaev, former Parliament Speaker Adakhan Madumarov, and current parliamentarians Nariman Tuleev, Akylbek Japarov and Marat Sultanov, who might seriously compete for the post, or at least take votes from the main contenders, thus increasing the possibility of a second round in the elections.
 
Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz Central Election Committee (CEC) is concerned about some candidates launching indirect and hidden campaigning before the authorized period. The ambiguous reaction of the CEC members to such facts raises doubts on the commission’s ability to control the election conduct. As the commission members explained, due to the absence of a definition of what is indirect and hidden campaigning in the legislation, they can do nothing but rely on ethical conduct by the candidates themselves. “Slogans on the billboards in Bishkek or candidates’ so called ‘meetings with people’ in the regions cannot be defined as campaigning in the election law, thus, we can do nothing,” CEC member Jarkyn Bapanova concluded.
 
In light of this situation, Prime Minister Atambaev’s increasingly frequent television and public appearances are perceived with great irritation among his main contenders for the office. His recent interview to Russian television (RTR) where was named a presidential candidate caused wide public discussion and harsh debates within the CEC. Whereas some commission members considered the interview as campaigning, others claimed there were no signs of campaigning, but a regular interview of the head of the government to foreign mass media.
 
Many experts state that the recent increase of the Prime Minister’s public appearances is part of his campaign strategy. Local analysts say it is evident that Atambaev is trying to use all resources available to win the elections. Atambaev’s recent replacements of governors and mayors and his refusal to leave the Prime Minister’s post until the campaign period starts reveal his intentions to use administrative resources in the elections, experts claim.

However, in spite of the public speculations about the candidate’s “privileges,” Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbaeva has repeatedly promised to conduct free and fair elections and ensure equal rights and opportunities for all registered candidates. “For the first time in the Post-Soviet countries, the presidential elections will be held without the acting president running for the office and I, as head of the country, will do everything possible to ensure democratic and fair elections,” Otunbaeva stated in her speech at the celebration ceremony of the country’s 20-years of independence on August 31. Two weeks later, during a working trip to Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan, Otunbaeva reasserted her neutral and impartial stand claiming that she will make sure that no administrative resources are used during the upcoming elections.

 

Joldosh Osmonov

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