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The Arab World has always been a lucrative market for many of Korea’s industrial and manufacturing firms. The Korean products have established a strong position in different Arab countries due to greater technological competitiveness and the relatively competitive prices, which allowed different Korean products especially automobiles, machinery, electrical appliances and other household items to move to the forefront of Arab consumer markets.

In addition, the Arab World is a very promising region for the Korean technology and energy sector. The government of the UAE, for example awarded a $20 billion contract to a South Korean consortium to build four commercial nuclear power reactors with a total capacity of 5.6 GWe, by 2020. The consortium was led by the Korea Electric Power Co. (KEPCO), and also included Samsung, Hyundai and Doosan. The construction of the first reactor unit started in July 2012, and work on the second started began in May 2013.

Many Korean companies in the Arab World are now waiting to see how the series of uprisings will turn out, notably in the so-called Arab Spring countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, along with the other Arab countries, in order to explore future opportunities to trade and make decisions to invest or divest. Political instability, uncertain future, the energy shortage (in non-Gulf Arab states), economic turmoil and the vague government strategies along with hesitant public policies are all factors contesting future businesses with the Arab countries, in particular those who were part of the popular uprisings at least in the short term.

Egypt, for example, is the largest single Arab market with more than 85 million consumers; the vast majority of them can be classified as lower middle class. The different international indicators continue to confirm that the middle class is shrinking and more people are falling into poverty. Electricity cuts are more frequent now than ever, forcing more Egyptians to depend on private generators to secure their electricity needs, while many factories minimized their working capacities to adjust to the shortage of energy, while others are doing their due diligence to turn coal into an alternative energy source. Egypt has also suspended indefinitely its plans to build nuclear reactors, at a time when Egypt is suffering its worst energy crisis.

Not only are most recent economic indicators on Egypt negative, including the well-known World Bank “Doing Business Report” which had Egypt at 128th place in the overall ease of doing business among the 189 countries surveyed; the already bad situation in Egypt has been exacerbated in all areas - health, education, infrastructure and living standards in general, since the wave of Arab Spring emanated from Egypt. The country continues to face tremendous political, economic and social dilemmas that demand an answer quickly to assuage public anger from inflating prices and rising employment, especially the youth.

The security and the stability have been a major concern for the foreign as well as for the local investors and entrepreneurs and have drastically increased transaction costs since the chaos began in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and in Yemen following the overthrow of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Muammar Gadhafi and Ali Saleh, respectively, after they have been in power for decades. However, the subsequent political failure to deliver peaceful political transition into a democracy or to enforce rule of law was a major setback to the Arab people themselves who had big hopes for the Arab Spring as a launching pad for democratic reform, economic prosperity and social justice.

Furthermore, the frequent change of government and key officials in the Arab Spring countries have went from bad to worse and culminated in other critical problems in the Arab states; problems such as cumbersome bureaucracy, shortage of skilled labor, difficulty of trade across borders and a high level of discretionary and arbitrary decisions. The latest positions of Arab states in key references such as the Corruption Perception Index, for example, undertaken by Transparency International, Tunisia at no. 77, Egypt 114, Yemen 167, Syria 168 and Libya 172, speak for itself.

Arab Spring states at a glimpse:

1. Reform in the Arab states is needed now more than at any other time, to overhaul the precarious economy and to enforce social justice, but the political will is still missing and will probably take some time before decisive reform measure can be undertaken.
2. Finding a forum for critical voices political, economic and labor voices in different Arab states is now difficult since most critical voices or independent media outlets have been shut down or are under strict state censorship or monitoring.
3. Repression of opposition has been systematic and human rights violations have been vigorous; earning condemnations by different prominent human rights watchdogs on a regular basis.

On the other hand, demographic shift in a number of Arab countries is stunning. For example, an estimated 75% of Egyptians are under the age of 25 with just 3% over the age of 65, making it one of the youngest populations in the world. The youth, who were never active or were part of the political process, have become the force behind the Arab Spring, driving the various demonstrations and riots that followed. Nevertheless, according to CAPMAS (Egypt’s statistics agency), Egypt’s total labor force amounts to 27.2 million, a 4.2% increase compared to 2010, where the youth constitutes 70.8% of the total unemployed, with around 10.6% aged between 15 and 19, and 20.9% ranging between 25 and 29 years old. The majority of unemployed youth were found among 20 to 24 year-olds, of which 39.3% were jobless.

It is equally important to understand that the Arab Spring (or “The Revolution” as referred by some), which marks the sparks of the popular uprising, did not start on any particular day and is still ongoing, even with the ouster of the respective rulers and regimes. It is better understood in terms of revolutionary waves still in progress and has yet to culminate in happy ending. It is equally important to understand that the millions that took to the streets in Tunis, Cairo, Tripoli, and Manama or in Sanaa are still eager and capable of rising again at any point to resolve the political limbo that looms over the region.

The Next Step

As quoted by Daniel Kahneman — “The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” It was not difficult to smell the smoke to anticipate the fire; that many Arab states were suffering from deep, chronic, complex and many-faced problems long before the beginning of the Arab Spring. However, no one could predict the a massive movement for change literally would be ignited, when a street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire on December 2010, to protest the confiscation of his belongings and the disgrace that he suffered from a policewoman who slapped him in the face, spat at him, confiscated his small weighing scale, and tossed away his merchandise cart. That act became a catalyst for the Tunisian Revolution and the bigger Arab Spring, inciting demonstrations and riots throughout Tunisia against decades of social and political failure, and personal or other forms of humiliation at the hands of the regime.

Some still fear that the old guards and loyalists of old Arab regimes continue to hold influential positions and are still working behind the scenes to curb drastic reform in the political, economic or the administrative spheres. Nevertheless, it is evident that things are moving in the direction of change. However, no one can claim to predict the scale of the future changes or that the future shape of different Arab states would be better or worse. In the end, however, public intervention in future revolutionary waves is unlikely to seek overthrow of regimes again, yet they will seek to remind the current governments and administrations with their unmet demands for social justice and freedoms.

It will be a big mistake for different Arab regimes to believe that history can repeat itself; that economic reform can be started first and democracy, human rights, political or civic rights be considered at a later stage, as was the case in South Korea under Major General Park Chung-Hee who led a coup in 1961. Under 18 years of his military rule, Korea witnessed successful economic development plans, export oriented policies and industrial growth. What Koreans in the 1960s or 1970s can accept is very different from those of the Arab youth of 2.0 revolutions, who demand a complete overhaul and full democracy, who will probably not be content with partial political, democratic and labor reform even for the short term, let alone for extended periods.
 
The different Arab regimes need to think away from the peculiar experiences of General Park of South Korea, Chiang Kai-Shek of Taiwan, Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore or Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia and to consider a more comprehensive model of change such as Turkey or Europe. They should also look at eastern Europe’s shift from communism to a market economy and membership in the European Union while maintaining and safeguarding democratic principles, political rights, allowing their civil societies to evolve into active player in the respective countries based on values of fairness, justice and security for all.

In short, the future is promising for the Arab countries that were part of the Arab Spring and the sacrifices made to topple regimes, reinstate democracy or to demand freedoms and social justice will pay off in the coming years. As a rule of thumb, the short term success of many authoritarian regimes in the aftermath of revolutionary years were based on public frustration with democratic politics that was not decisive, swift or affluent as people expected. However, over a period between 7 – 13 years different Arab countries will shift to democratic governance, once the model succeeds in any Arab country, reflecting the values that ignited and inspired the Arab Spring in Tunisia, which then flourished in Egypt and can be replicated in other Arab countries.