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The Changing Paradigms of Africa Continent

아프리카ㆍ 중동 일반 Kennedy Ochieng Kyung Hee University PhD candidate 2014/09/26

Two centuries ago Africa was described as a dark continent; while till last century the economist described the continent as hopeless in the face of daunting challenges and misfortunes. A quick recollection of historical facts points to a continent bedeviled by among them, poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, poor governance, military rule and corruption embedded in most government institutions. But barely a decade later the tune and perception have completely changed as the continent is now described as ‘the rising Africa’ (The economist, 2012). This is no doubt in an apparent reference to the beckoning opportunities and great growth potential Africa is seen to harbor.

The change of perception about Africa was reinforced during President Obama’s tour of Africa last year when he remarked that the US, a long standing aid donor to Africa, is ‘looking at a new model that’s based not just on aid and assistance, but trade and partnership’ (New York Times, 2013). This tour was largely seen as an effort by the US to bolster ties with one of the world’s dynamic and rapidly advancing regions. The US-Africa-leaders summit held in the in the US last month was one of its own kind and could not help but focus more attention to Africa. The meeting whose theme was ‘investing in the next generation’ was the climax of Africa’s historic moment. The news dispatched by the white house amplified that tone when, once again, Obama’s rallying call was one for partnership based mutual respect and responsibility and reference to Africa as a continent linked to America’s own vision of ‘the generation we want’ (Whitehouse correspondence).

Thus there is no doubt that Africa has transformed itself from the previous moment of desperation and aid recipient, to one that is set at the stage as the World’s next economic hub. A number of factors account for the continent’s changing paradigms has been ushered in by its market potential, a dynamic and expanding natural resource base, and investment opportunities marked by expanding democracy and stabilizing governments. As observed by one analyst, the race to share Africa is in earnest and has indeed quickly gained momentum (The economist, 2012). Today, more than ever before, Africa needs more trade, not aid. However if Africa has to receive aid, that aid should be aid for trade, because the continent can only sustainably transform itself  economically when it leads its development path using its growing opportunities and unrivalled resource endowments. According to Faida Mitifu the DRC ambassador to the US, the good thing about the present partnership with Africa is that ‘it is a give and take’. ‘If the recent trends continue, businesses will position themselves for success through helping to build Africa for the future’ (AfricaRenewal).

As a demonstration of its economic resilience, for example, Africa emerged very fast out of the 2008 economic crisis to gain an annual growth of 2 percent. This phenomenal recovery was unimaginable in the Africa of yesterday.  Furthermore, 28 of its countries are expected to record an annual average growth of 5 percent between 2012 and 2016, while other countries with oil deposits like Ghana, Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria could most likely surpass this growth projection (The economist, 2012). But more countries have joined the list of potential oil and gas producers after successful oil exploration, including Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan, further pointing to a brighter Africa.

Moreover, in a separate report by the IMF from 2000 to 2010, six of the world’s fastest growing economies were in Sub Saharan Africa, and the forecast is more optimistic in the next five years (INSEAD KNOWLEDGE).  Regarding growth in investment, a survey commissioned by Ernest and Young revealed that Africa received the largest share of foreign direct investment from 2010-2011, growing by 27 percent in that period alone. This growth rate has been compounded at 20 percent up until 2007(Ernest and Young, 2012). Similarly, it has been noted that overall, Africa as a continent has the highest growth potential in the foreseeable future (The economist, 2012). Barclays ‘New Trade with Africa’ report showed that British companies seen a great market potential that is yet to be exploited. The survey also revealed that British products are already famous in the continent’s markets. Owing to this fact the continent is being visited by a number of corporate leaders who have expressed interest in investing in Africa.

Regarding its market, Africa’s young demographic composition, presents a big market not only to China, but to the world at large. With a population of close to one billion Africa offers a market that only rivals the one that saw China transform rapidly into a global economic power. The demands of the consumers in Africa is getting complex and this presents tremendous opportunities for its trading partners (The Economist, 2012). Demographic composition is a key asset in any market. Yet it is estimated that by 2040 Africa will be the home to one out of five of the world’s youngest populations and will have the World’s largest working population (BBC, 2012). Furthermore, Africa is organized into three regional trading blocs; Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, East African Community, EAC and Southern African Development Community, SADC. These trading blocs along with ongoing efforts to integrate them into a single trading bloc will potentially offer larger market, reduce barrier to trade, speed up movement of goods across borders and provide greater economies of scale. It will also increase Africa’s negotiating power. There are also plans for economic integration among member countries within each trading bloc, such as EAC. These efforts will in turn provide bigger returns on investment. With the current demographic trends pointing to a more sophisticated consumer market in Africa, multinational Corporations are likely to focus their efforts to penetrate the market. Already the continent is providing the largest returns on foreign investment than any other developing region.
Apparently, China had sought partnership with Africa ahead of the rest of the world. The US for example, seems to have just been awakened by China’s growing presence in Africa. Africa’s trading with non OECD countries, including Brazil, India and China has grown rapidly in the past decade. However, currently, China is the single largest trading partner with the continent, surpassing US in 2009. For example in 2011 alone, China netted 166 billion in trade with Africa. This is a clear indication of the potential of the African market (AfricaRenewal). Despite China’s dominance, Africa has in general registered a positive growth in trade with the rest of the world. The EU Commission asserted that trade with Africa is strongest, especially with South Africa which has diversified its exports to non basic commodities (European Commission). Similarly OECD counties including Korea and Turkey have also recorded impressive growth in trade with Africa (OECD Fact book, 2011- 2012).

Nevertheless, it is lamentable that minerals remain the main trading commodity between Africa and major trading partners. Even China’s dominant presence in Africa should be seen on one hand in the light of scramble for Africa’s minerals resources, especially in view of China’s growing energy needs, while in exchange it permeates the continent with its industrial goods. For example presently, China buys one third of the continent’s oil.

On the other hand China has successfully found its niche in African market; its goods are most preferred to other trading partners’ like Europe and North America, because they are affordable to African consumers (AfricaRenewal). However, the cheap Chinese products are also crumbling Africa’s local industries. But despite the critics who see China’s presence in Africa as a form of neocolonialism, majority of African leaders view partnership in more favorable terms than with the West. This is because it leads to quick and tangible results such as roads, highways among others. One should not forget that the tallest building in Africa located in Addis Ababa and used as Africa Union headquarters is China’s ‘gift’ to Africa.

The other key drivers to this re-emerging potential of Africa include growth in technology and investment in infrastructure.  With regard to technology, mobile phone penetration in Africa, for instance has been rising and is currently standing at an average 70 percent in the continent (The economist, 2013). As of 2010 mobile phone subscribers had exceeded 500 million. While many mobile phone operators have taken advantage of the huge demand for mobile phone devices in Africa, the market is not exhausted yet. Internet access is also rising especially in major cities in Africa. Fibre optic cables are being laid in many countries, such as East Africa countries. Another remarkable instance is the technology city being developed in Kenya’s Konsa city. The city, located adjacent the capital city is meant to be part of the Special Economic Zones that will replace the Export Processing Zone. These technological trends will further deepen market access and increase both the speed and efficiency of doing business, while also providing a market on themselves in Africa (The economist, 2012).

In addition, many African countries are undertaken key infrastructure projects that are opening the region. A survey by Ernst and Young (2012), asserted that the future growth of the region lies on infrastructure development. It estimated that today African governments and private sector sources combined are investing $72b a year in new infrastructure across the continent, out of which telecom- related infrastructure accounts for $21b. Some of these successful infrastructure developments have been led by Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa, as coordinated by NEPAD (African infrastructure investment report). Chinese companies have also been very instrumental in building and upgrading major roads, railway lines and ports in Africa, including Kenya’s super highway and the expected modern railway line. However, infrastructure investment in Africa is still under invested and more work need to be done in order to reduce congestion in major ports and speed up movement of goods. Electricity is also in short supply in the continent. Nevertheless, these under invested areas also offer opportunity for investment, especially because many Africa countries have liberalized their sectors allowing for public private partnership, including partnership with multinational corporations on major projects. These multinational corporations are also involved in bidding for the construction of the projects.

Nonetheless, Africa’s transformative progress should not only be viewed through economic lenses. There has been cross cutting developments in the continents’ politics. Across the continent, except in a few countries like Central African Republic, Mali and South Sudan, civil wars and despots are clearing way for a maturing democracy and good governance. Many transitions have occurred with respect to democracy and governance. In 2000, for example, the civil war in Angola came to an end. Similarly, Rwanda which just emerged from genocide a decade ago has registered tremendous growth and stability (World Policy journal, 2013), and in 2010, Kenya enacted one of the latest progressive constitutions in the world. More generally the citizens in most Africa countries are demanding accountability for their governments. In some countries like Kenya civil society groups have put pressure on government officers implicated in corruption and forced them to resign from office. In addition, African countries are today working for peace among member states because they have realized that instability in neighboring countries affects stability and development of other states. This is the philosophy that underpinned the African Union Mission in Somalia, AMISON involvement in stabilizing Somalia.

But despite Africa’s remarkable and undisputed progress both in terms of governance and economics, there has been a worrying trend whereby the international media has consistently continued, without precision on facts, to paint Africa as continent still inhibited by all ills and misfortunes ranging from natural disasters, disease, hunger, war and instability to illiteracy and backwardness. At the core of this media construct is the overriding theme that Africa is a land riddled with poverty and impossibilities. However, such perceptions have completely ignored the present actual facts. As George Simpkins puts it ‘’ If the media doesn’t change the tune, America will miss out on the commercial opportunities others rush to see.’’ In fact countries that will not be strategic in their moves to engage Africa will soon find themselves playing in the league of laggards. Even though it had been pictured as a desperate charity case, Africa should now seen more and more as a booming young market for the future. Today the mission to build Africa should be by African states, the role of rest of the world is to be partners, not donors in that process (New York Times, 2013).

 

REFERENCES:
Building bridges- Ernest and Young’s 2012 Attractiveness survey, Africa.
BBC News, July 212: Africa, the Infrastructure that actually drives growth
AfricanRenewal Magazine. China in the heart of Africa: Opportunities and pitfalls in a rapidly expanding relationship
European Commission:  EU-Trade with South Africa. Available on
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/south-africa/

INSEAD KNOWLWDGE: Africa Means Business- Opportunities in Frontier Markets
OECD Fact book 2011-2012: Economic, environmental and Social Statistics, OECD publishing.
The Africa Infrastructure Investment Report, 2013
The economist intelligence unit limited, 2012.
The Economist (Aug.22, 2013). Telecoms in Ethiopia. Out of reach.
White house correspondence, available on http://www.whitehouse.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit
World policy Journal 2012-2013

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