러시아ㆍ유라시아

The binding regime of exchange rate to the Russian ruble was being used in the Republic of Belarus during 2001-2008. The binding regime to the USD was used in 2008. The National bank of the Republic of Belarus moved to the exchange rate binding of the Belarusian ruble to the currency basket (which included equal parts of dollar US, euro, and the Russian ruble) from 2009. The given regime, as the previously used ones, was a diversity of the flexible fixation regime (the horizontal range). During 2009 the rate of Belarusian ruble to the currency basket has depreciated at 8% in comparison with the initial level, during 2010 ？ at 1,8%, i.e. for two years it was being kept within the set 10-% range.

The effectiveness of using the above mentioned regime in Belarus is proved by the fact that during the world finance and economic crisis in 2009-2010 the monetary authorities managed to support the stability at the foreign currency market. In 2009 the cardinal measures had to be taken for the local currency stabilization, - and particularly one-time 20% devaluation that was the basis for saving the stability at the foreign currency market.

Using the regime of binding to the currency basket in 2009-2010 had the following particularities in our country:
1) In underdeveloped financial market condition, the requirements of business entities ？ exporters and importers in financial derivatives weren’t met (options, futures). Therefore the usage of the foreign currency exchange rate fixed regime stimulated the loss minimization of business entities in the real sector of economy while realizing the production and commercial operations.
2) Using the fixed foreign currency exchange rate has increased the investments in the local currency. There was the tendency of stimulation the deposits in local currency. It reduced the demand for foreign currency.
3) At sufficiently high rates of inflation (for 2010 the growth of consumer prices index amounted 109,9%) the state policy of depreciation of both  the nominal and real exchange rates stimulated  the export expansion.

The reviewed features of the used currency exchange rate regime for a long period of time had a positive effect on the economic situation in the country.

At the same time, result of the year 2010 was the negative foreign trade balance which reached minus USD 9,6 billion. Therefore the government had to cover the deficiency of foreign currency in the country by means of the attraction of external loans and Eurobonds distribution. At the beginning of 2011 the situation sharpened at the foreign currency market as the currency supply into the country didn’t cover the growing needs, which were also the result of increase of population’s mistrust to the monetary policy of the state. The National bank had to extend the foreign exchange limitations in order to maintain the exchange rate in the significant reduction of the international reserve assets volume.  Thus, the procedure of the priorities was established at the stock exchange while fulfilling a request for foreign currency purchases: the highest priorities were set for payment for medicines, for supplied natural gas to the republic, for the repayment of loans in foreign currency.

Measures taken by the National bank were insufficient and in May one-time devaluation of the exchange rate was held. As the result the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the foreign currency basket depreciated by 75% for the period of January-July 2011. After the devaluation the currency exchange rate of bidding to the currency basket was still realized, which was a kind of the fixed regime.   
After devaluation in May 2011 the situation at the foreign market didn’t stabilize, as the currency supply into the country still didn’t cover the increasing demand for it.  The excessive demand for the foreign currency was specified by population’s mistrust to the monetary policy and still wasn’t supplied. From September 14, 2011 the second trade session started at the Belarusian currency and stock exchange, where the exchange rate of Belarusian ruble to the main currencies (US dollar, Euro and Russian ruble) was determined on the basis of supply and demand. First two weeks the National bank didn’t hold the intervention to influence the exchange rate. October 20, 2011 the unification of the exchange rate was realized, the rate amounted 8680 rubles for one US dollar and the additional session taken by Belarusian currency and stock exchange stopped. By the end of 2011 the Belarusian ruble depreciated by 172% to the value of foreign currency basket at the beginning of the year (picture 1). 

Picture 1 ？ The dynamics of consumer price index and changes the official currency exchange rate to the currency basket in 2011 in the Republic of Belarus
 

The situation of official currency exchange rate is stabilized in the Republic of Belarus in 2012 (picture 2).

Picture 2 The dynamics of average official currency exchange rate of Belarusian ruble to USD,   in 2011-  2012.

The National bank of the Republic of Belarus declared on the changes in exchange rate formation and the transition to the managed float exchange rate in 2012.

The exchange rate adjustment  in  the conditions of Common economic space. 
The most difficult policy is that of the exchange rate in the countries of Common economic space (CES). CES was found on the basis of Customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. This regional economic union started its activity from January 1, 2012. Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan reached an internal convertibility of local currencies. The exchange rate is formed at the domestic exchange market on the basis of demand and supply in each participating country of CES, and the official exchange rate is specified through the market one. The organized exchanging currency market forms the foundation of the foreign exchange market of these countries; the transactions at the interbank foreign exchange market are improved and developed.

An agreement on Agreed principals of monetary policy of CES countries provides the exchange rate policy conducting by the parties based on the gradual harmonization principles. The exchange rate policy of CES should be aimed at increasing the trust for local currencies of the parties in each participating state of the agreement as well as at the international currency markets. According to this agreement the CES countries should:
- to coordinate the exchange rate policy for ensuring of local currencies usage extension in mutual settlements;
- to ensure the convertibility of local currencies in the current and capital transactions of payment balance that supposes the absence of any restrictions by foreign exchange transactions for residents;
- to provide conditions for direct mutual price quotations of the local currencies;
- to avoid a multiplicity of exchange rates;
- to set the official exchange rate on the basis of the rate formed at the exchanging currency market  (or on the basis of cross rates against US dollar). 
In Russia, the exchange rate policy is defined as the horizontal range, but the range is pretty extensive that actually allows the free float of the rate. In addition, the Central bank of Russia intervenes for the matter of the exchange rate formation. In Russia the task of changing the elasticity and extension of the operational range in order to increase the flexibility of the exchange rate formation and to prepare for use of the float exchange rate is set for 2012.

In Kazakhstan in 2011 the National bank decided to cancel the range of the exchange rate  of tenge (150 tenge per US 1 dollar plus  10% and minus 15%) and to turn to a managed float exchange rate, i.e. the horizontal range regime was established. Coordination of mechanisms and unified approach to the exchange rate formation are necessary for adjustment of competitive conditions. The exchange rate management is one of the most effective influence instruments at the real sector of economy especially those which are directly or indirectly involved in the foreign economic activity. In our opinion the most effective instrument of monetary sphere regulation of CES countries should be the exchange rate formation policy.

Pursuant to the Agreement, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan at the first phase of integration should coordinate the interval quantities of the local currency rate against US dollar (or euro) for a three year period. The real effective exchange rate index of the local currency of three countries will be used for monitoring in order to determine the degree of integration.