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연구정보

Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

우즈베키스탄 / 카자흐스탄 / 키르기스스탄 / 타지키스탄 / 투르크메니스탄 / 아프리카ㆍ 중동 일반 국외연구자료 기타 Pritha Mitra ; Amr Hosny ; Gohar Abajyan ; Mark Fischer IMF 발간일 : 2015-03-20 등록일 : 2015-03-23 원문링크

Abstract

The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by ¾ of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.

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