러시아ㆍ유라시아

Abstract

Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) will continue to decelerate in 2015 mainly as a consequence of lower commodity prices and spillovers from Russia’s slowdown. Where fiscal space and available financing allow, temporary fiscal easing would help economies respond to weakening demand and declining remittances. Over the medium term, fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild depleted buffers and adjust spending plans to the new regional and global economic context. In light of the depreciation of the ruble and the appreciation of the dollar, greater exchange rate flexibility would ease pressure on reserves while helping oil exporters adjust to lower oil prices. Monetary policy may need to be tightened to keep inflation expectations anchored in the face of weakening currencies. Over the medium term, deep structural reforms, particularly to improve the business climate and governance, would raise prospects and make economic growth more inclusive and diversified.
A modest recovery is expected to continue in the MENAP despite a slump in oil prices, raging regional conflicts, and lingering uncertainty of the post-Arab Spring transitions.