중동부유럽

The results of the 2011 Census confirm that Serbia is still among countries with the oldest population in Europe. Persons aged 65+ out­numbered those under the age of 15 by 20% (17.4% versus 14.4%), and the median age was 42.7 years. Population ageing has continued, but it was slower in the intercensal period of 2002-2011 than during the 1980s and 1990s. Population ageing in Serbia has not only continued but is also widespread at all territorial levels. According to the 2011 Census, in all four statistical regions (NUTS 2), people aged 65 or older outnumbered those under the age of 15 and, in comparison to 2002, regional differences in the key indicators of population ageing increased. Heterogeneity is more present at lower territorial levels (cities/municipalities) with the least favourable age structure which will be pointed out. This paper also explores trends of components of population dynamics in the intercensal period 2002-2011, as well as causal relationship with the change of the age structure. Current demographic trends (low fertility, negative natural increase, net emigration) and very old age structure severely limit the spectrum of future demographic changes both in the medium and especially in the short term. The situation is particularly influenced by the entrance of the large baby boom generation in the elderly ages. Explorations of future population trends are conducted based on the author’s own demographic projections for Serbia until 2061 (revision 2014).