연구정보
Continuation of Monetary Crisis of 2014 in Russia is Inevitable
러시아 국외연구자료 기타 Alexey Fedorov Rossijskij Akademičeskij Žurnal 발간일 : 2015-02-16 등록일 : 2016-06-14 원문링크
The article is reproducing analysis of relation of foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the quantity of minted money (M2) for the last 10 years. A well-founded conclusion is drawing: from after 2010 the quantity of money minted by the government of Russia was far of excess of the quantity the metallic reserve storing allowed. The maximum gap between real quantity of Rubles and currency holdings fall within the end of 2014. Unrestrained emission of Rubles allocated for defense resulted in the first correction in value of the Ruble; the point at issue is December 14, 2014- the day when the Rouble depreciated on 7 % against western currencies - the US dollar and the Euro. Taken as a whole, within a year the exchange rate of the Rouble to the dollar fall on more than 55 %, so, on pace of depreciation, the Rouble turned the one of weakest currencies in the world. However, in the author`s opinion, this correction did not affect the activities of the Russian authorities and this can result in further external imbalance in the country and in further crash of the Russian ruble.