러시아ㆍ유라시아

After the experience of ‘failed state’ at the beginning of 1990s, Azeri central authority has been restored and stability has returned. But the regime has become increasingly authoritarian since then.

So far, the results in terms of regime transition and liberalization have not met the expectations of the international community. This paper argues that this situation has much to do with the prioritization of a power-building strategy over state-building since Heydar Aliyev and his patronage networks took power. It analyses how father and son Aliyevs have resorted to formal institutions and to informal structures in order to impose and reproduce their domination, and applies a typology to Azeri state according to four forms of legitimacy: charismatic, bureaucratic,patrimonial and democratic. Based on this analysis and the theoretical model, it becomes possible to categorize the post-Soviet Azerbaijan. The political legitimacy formula has significantly changed since 1993. Democratic and bureaucratic forms of legitimacy play a lesser role today, whereas charismatic and neo-patrimonialist forms of legitimacy became the core mechanisms of the political system. As a result, Azerbaijan can be mainly characterized as a mix of collusive and reationary state, with some populism. Growing authoritarianism, neo-patrimonialism, collusion,and institutional weakness influence each other and thus brings to question the future of political stability in Azerbaijan.