러시아ㆍ유라시아

The world has a new Eurasian Economic Commission in Central Asia consisting of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. These three Central Asian countries have formed a Single Economic Space and a Customs Union. They are aiming towards an Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 with an overall free trade area between them. The Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) originated from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The treaty on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community was on agreed on October 10, 2000. A Common Economic Space for the community was launched on January 1, 2010. The Eurasian Economic Commission is the regulatory agency for the Eurasian Economic Community Common Economic Space and the Customs Union. Other Central Asian nations have voiced their view that they would like to join the Customs Union. There is a rigorous process of accession to join. Theoretically, membership of the EEU is in Central Asia’s interest. It satisfies the former-Soviet section of Central Asia’s “multi-vector” foreign policy and acts as a counter-balance to Chinese influence in the region. However, the envisaged economic benefits have fallen short. The Customs Union was supposed to open up Central Asia manufacturing to Russian markets, but in technical regulations between Russia and Central Asia have increased costs on Central Asia’s exports to Russia. In the long-term, Central Asia is unwilling to support unfavourable economic conditions for the sake of maintaining good relations with Russia; particularly if China offers a less complicated alternative. As China strengthens its bi-lateral relations with the five Central Asian states, and reinforces relations with Russia, third-party economic relations that could counteract Chinese investments in the region become more likely. China has been relatively quiet on its view of the EEU. Previously China was generally dismissive of negative effects of the Customs Union, but the timing of the EEU’s creation may cause quiet concern within the Chinese government. China can draw some comfort from the obvious weaknesses of the agreement.