연구정보
[경제] Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints : Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan
인도ㆍ남아시아 일반 국내연구자료 학술논문 Uddin Alma, Makoto Kakinaka, Donghun Kim 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 발간일 : 2014-10-14 등록일 : 2017-10-25 원문링크
This study discusses fiscal sustainability in three South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan) by empirically examining a long-term relationship between revenue and expenditure with the consideration of the intertemporal budget constraint. The conventional cointegration analysis without any structural break and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration analysis that allows a one-time structural break suggest that the Bangladesh fiscal policy could be sustainable, while fiscal stances of India and Pakistan are unsustainable. When considering the Lucas critique, this research also includes a time-variant coefficient (TVC) model with the Kalman filter. The analysis confirms the results of the conventional and Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests for Bangladesh and India but identifies possible sustainability of the fiscal stance for Pakistan.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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