아프리카ㆍ중동

We have come a long way from the hopes associated with Camp David, “Globalism,” “the end of history,” the end of the First Gulf War in 1991, and the first year of the Arab Spring in 2011 – almost all of it in the wrong direction. From a “realist” perspective, the greater Middle East has deteriorated over time, and in ways that go far beyond its conflicts, competing ideologies and faiths, and the petty power struggles of its ruling elites.

The Burke Chair at CSIS is releasing an analysis of the progress the government of each county in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region has actually made since 2011. This analysis ranks each country’s level of success or failure in meeting the needs of its people, and in meeting the hopes of the Arab Spring, in order to assess its current situation and provide a prognosis of its near term future.

The results are not good. Far too many countries have become “failed states” in ways that go beyond the threat posed by Iran, extremism, and ethnic and sectarian divisions. They have failed to make adequate progress in civil and economic reforms, and they have stopped short of reducing corruption and incompetence in national politics and governance.

Accordingly, it is time to take a hard, blunt look at what has happened to country-after-country in the region. Their governments have failed to make adequate progress in civil and economic reforms, and they have stopped short of reducing corruption and incompetence in national politics and governance. These problems are not specific to any one nation. They have become regional – made worse in virtually every case by the impact of the crisis in petroleum export prices and the Coronavirus on the local and global economy.