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연구정보

[경제] Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

인도네시아 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - IMF 발간일 : 2019-11-08 등록일 : 2020-10-10 원문링크

How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous sovereign default risk. The model explains a large proportion of business cycle fluctuations in interest-rate spreads in oil-exporting emerging market economies, particularly the countercyclicallity of interest rate spreads and oil prices. Higher risk-aversion, more impatient governments, larger oil shares and a stronger correlation between domestic output and oil price shocks all lead to stronger co-movements between risk premiums and the oil price.

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