연구정보
[경제] Maldives Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Component-Driven Quarterly Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach
몰디브 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Asian Development Bank 발간일 : 2020-12-29 등록일 : 2021-01-29 원문링크
This study aims to build an efficient small-scale macroeconomic forecasting tool for Maldives using Bayesian vector autoregression estimations to circumvent the "curse of dimensionality" and constraints to analyzing and organizing data.
Due to significant limitations in data availability, empirical economic modeling for Maldives can be problematic. In the paper, Bayesian vector autoregression estimations are utilized comprising of component-disaggregated domestic sectoral production, price, and tourism variables. Results demonstrate how this methodology is appropriate for economic modeling in Maldives, in particular for macroeconomic and tourism variables. Augmenting for qualitative assessments, the directional inclination of the forecasts is improved.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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