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[정책] Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory
튀르키예 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - CEPR 발간일 : 2022-04-19 등록일 : 2022-05-27 원문링크
For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the "standard model" suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [경제] Transition Report 2021-22 : Turkey | 2022-04-01 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [농업경제] Turkiye - EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA - P158418 - Turkey Irrigation Moderniza... | 2022-07-10 |
