연구정보
[경제] Timor Leste : Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
동남아시아 기타 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2022-10-18 등록일 : 2022-10-23 원문링크
Timor-Leste remains at moderate risk of overall and external debt distress, with application of judgement, unchanged from the 2021 Article IV debt sustainability analysis. The present value of external debt-to-exports ratio and the debt service-to-exports ratio under the baseline are projected to breach their respective indicative thresholds in the medium-term, triggering a high-risk mechanical rating for external and overall debt. In the medium-term, however, the Petroleum Fund is large relative to projected debt levels and debt service requirements, and its assets are liquid and accessible, thus acting as a mitigating factor, prompting the use of judgement to upgrade the risk assessment. Longterm risks to debt sustainability have increased compared to the 2021 Article IV debt sustainability analysis, reflecting higher projected fiscal deficits and a faster depletion of the Petroleum Fund. Staff projects that the Petroleum Fund, which is the main source of funding of fiscal deficits, will be depleted in 2038, triggering a breach of all debt indicatorstowards the end of the twenty-year projection horizon. However, there is time to adopt necessary policy adjustments— staff’s alternative scenario illustrates how fiscal consolidation and structural reforms can ensure both fiscal and debt sustainability in the long term.
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