Following a global demand slowdown in the second half of this year, global and regional real merchandise trade growth is expected to be limited in 2022. Global real exports and imports are forecasted to grow by just 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively. Asia-Pacific real exports (excluding the Russian Federation) are expected to grow 3.0%, while imports will contract by 0.3%. Nominally, merchandise trade in Asia and the Pacific in 2022 is forecasted to total US$ 19.0 trillion in 2022.
In 2023, regional merchandise trade is expected to continue growing modestly. Nominal exports and imports growth (excluding the Russian Federation) is forecasted to reach 1.9% and 2.5%, respectively, and 1.6% and 0.7% in real terms, respectively. These estimates assume that inflation will be effectively curbed during the next year. Downside risks such as the potential re-emergence of COVID-19 lockdowns, the evolution of the war in Ukraine and risks of a global economic recession loom and add a considerable amount of uncertainty to current estimates.