중동부유럽
연구정보
[정책] Fiscal policy orientation in the euro area in real-time
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - La Banque de France 발간일 : 2022-12-19 등록일 : 2022-12-25 원문링크
This paper analyses the orientation of fiscal policy in the euro area in real-time, using a new real-time dataset including 11 euro area countries for the 1999-2019 period. We compare the cyclicality of the fiscal stance, measured as the change in the cyclically-adjusted total and primary budget balance, established during budgetary planning with their ex-post outturns. We find empirical evidence for pro-cyclical fiscal plans and a more a-cyclical behaviour of fiscal outcomes on average for euro area countries. We show hence that the tendency to run a pro-cyclical policy is already anchored in fiscal plans and not just an outcome of surprises on cyclical conditions. This result is robust to different specifications and estimation methods. We observe pro-cyclicality at budget planning especially during tightening episodes and a more a-cyclical fiscal stance during fiscal loosening. We also find that fiscal plans are pro-cyclical outside of crisis years of the Global Financial crisis and the European Debt crisis. We detect strong country heterogeneity in the orientation of fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post in the euro area.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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