연구정보
[경제] Nepal - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
네팔 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2023-05-31 등록일 : 2023-06-16 원문링크
Both external and overall public debt in Nepal is assessed at low risk of debt distress. Present value (PV) of external debt-to-exports ratio breaches the indicative threshold under an export and a combined shock scenario, suggesting a mechanical rating of moderate risk of debt distress. Still, similar to last year’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), staff has applied judgement to assess external debt to be at low risk of debt distress due to Nepal’s unusually high level of remittances, making exports - and hence debt-to-exports ratios - a less relevant indicator than for most economies. Remittances are the major source of foreign exchange earnings in Nepal, which along with concessional external financing, help the country maintain an adequate level of reserves and meet its debt obligations despite a sizeable trade deficit. All other external debt indicators are below their respective indicative thresholds in all stress-tests. The PV of public debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio does not breach the indicative threshold under any scenario. Public debt stood at 44 percent of GDP in FY2020-21: lower than projected in the last year’s DSA due to higher-than-projected GDP growth and better-than-expected fiscal outturns. The debt is projected to peak at 50 percent of GDP in FY2025-26 and gradually subside afterwards. The assessment nevertheless is contingent upon prudent execution of the medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy (as envisaged in the ECF-supported program), including tax revenue and spending reforms, and continued utilization of external borrowing at concessional terms as envisaged in Nepal’s medium term debt management strategy (MTDS). The assessment also stresses the importance of reforms to diversify Nepal’s exports, improve productivity and competitiveness, and enhance resilience to shocks, in particular natural disasters.
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| 이전글 | [경제] Nepal - Fiscal Federalism Update | 2023-06-16 |
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| 다음글 | [경제] Tracking the labor market recovery from COVID-19 in Nepal Brief 4: The role... | 2023-06-30 |
