러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[경제] Tajikistan Economic Update : Focusing on Boosting Private Sector Dynamism
타지키스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2023-08-31 등록일 : 2023-09-10 원문링크
During regional instability and global inflation, Tajikistan experienced remarkable economic growth and achieved a record low inflation rate in 2022. The country's economic activity flourished, thanks to the influx of remittances and the expansion of both services and industrial production. Real GDP expanded by 8 percent in 2022, following a recovery from the previous year. Tajikistan boasted the lowest inflation rate in the region, which was made possible by the implementation of a prudent monetary policy and a strengthened exchange rate. By the end of 2022, the consumer price inflation rate registered at 4.2 percent and continued to decline throughout the first half of 2023. Tajikistan has successfully maintained a current account surplus for the third year in a row, achieving a historically high surplus of 15.6 percent of GDP in 2022. However, the trade deficit widened due to increased imports, while exports decreased as the government chose to retain more gold domestically. Fortunately, the country offset this deficit with remittance inflows, which amounted to approximately 50 percent of GDP. The mining industry attracted most of the foreign direct investment. Additionally, international reserves have sharply increased and now provide coverage for over 9 months of imports. While the financial sector significantly benefitted from strong financial flows and cross-border transfer operations, the sector remains vulnerable due to poor asset quality, high credit concentration, and elevated levels of dollarization. Nonperforming loans declined but still at elevated levels, and large exposures to state-owned enterprises pose risks. Access to finance, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, is hindered by an inefficient banking sector with limited competition and high collateral requirements.
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