연구정보
[국제관계] Between a Republic and an Emirate: The Future of Afghanistan
아프가니스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - ORF 발간일 : 2020-12-17 등록일 : 2021-01-20 원문링크
This special report was written before the 2020 United States presidential elections. Under the incoming Biden administration, the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to be more gradual and “responsible”, despite the President-elect being in favour of American troops exiting the war-weary country soon. In retrospect, Donald Trump’s insistence on pulling out all US troops from Afghanistan by Christmas 2020 was not misguided, since there is little that such military presence can achieve at this stage of the war. The situation is sealed by some neighbouring nations acting as spoilers in the peace process, impeding American efforts to help bring stability to Afghanistan.
Given Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban and its unique ability to shape internal dynamics in Afghanistan, Biden may prefer to incentivise Islamabad, instead of exerting pressure on it, to pursue larger US strategic interests in the region. However, notwithstanding Biden’s historically strong ties with the Pakistani leadership (both civilian and military), his administration will seek to address the issue of existing terror networks operating out of Pakistan,[1] since a “no-tolerance” policy towards terrorism was one of the cornerstones of Biden’s electoral agenda for South Asia.[2] However the US decides to approach the issue, India will be faced with unique dilemmas regarding its engagement strategy for Afghanistan, especially in the context of fast-evolving but precarious regional dynamics.
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