연구정보
[경제] Afghanistan Spatial Disparities Assessment : Identifying Drivers of Differential Development (Vol. 2) : Appendix
아프가니스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2021-03-04 등록일 : 2021-04-02 원문링크
Uneven regional development and spatial variations in welfare characterize the developing world. In Afghanistan, these disparities are especially stark. This assessment seeks to unpack the divergence in regional development outcomes in Afghanistan, identifying potential sources of growth and resilience as well as areas of deterioration and distress. It uncovers the commonalities between Afghan provinces that experienced similar development trajectories in the 2007-2017 period. For this purpose, groups of provinces are distinguished: (i) those that have consistently prospered; (ii) those that were initially disadvantaged but later made robust relative gains; and (iii) those that have progressed slowly or consistently lost ground. The assessment uses a three-step approach to decompose Afghanistan’s economic geography and recognize spatial patterns and trends in development. First, the study applies an objective, empirical principal component analysis (PCA) method to rank provinces based on economic performance. Second, it identifies key drivers and correlates of performance, examining the importance of specific endowments or characteristics for maintaining or improving provincial ranking. Third, it offers an in-depth case study of provinces whose development conditions were similar initially but diverged over time. This assessment presents interventions that may best leverage the unfulfilled potential of different Afghan regions and moderate the worsening risks they face. The recommendations focus on issues of density, distance, and division. The assessment is structured as follows: section one gives introduction. Section two describes the spatial inequalities prevalent in the Afghan development context. Section three discusses the data and methodology. Section four conducts quantitative and qualitative analyses to identify the drivers and correlates of provincial economic performance. The results from these analyses support the policy recommendations presented in section five.
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