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연구정보

[경제] When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

동남아시아 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund 발간일 : 2016-11-10 등록일 : 2018-12-07 원문링크

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding is that the impact of China growth shocks on ASEAN has risen since the global financial crisis. A one percent decline in China’s growth implies a 0.3 percent reduction in growth for ASEAN EMEs and 0.2 for FDEs. An important component of inflation is also shared between ASEAN and China. These magnitudes are double what they were two decades ago due to stronger trade and financial linkages. Finally, a slowdown in China, while having real effects, also has a financial impact via slower credit growth and lower equity prices. This is in line with the existence of both portfolio balance and signaling channels, in which ASEAN market participants absorb news on China economic activity as an indicator over domestic growth prospects.

본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP)EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.

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