February 2024 marks three years since Myanmar’s armed forces (Tatmadaw), led by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, seized power from Aung San Su Kyii’s democratically elected government. However, the nominal government that the Tatmadaw set up, the State Administrative Council (SAC), is ironically at its weakest. The SAC has been facing unprecedented challenges on the battlefield since the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA), consisting of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), launched a major military offensive dubbed “Operation 1027” in northern Shan State in October 2023. The offensive toppled the military in at least 17 towns in northern Shan State and resulted in the surrender of thousands of rank-and-file soldiers and several senior officers. In November 2023, a coalition of Karenni ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) launched a separate offensive in Kayah (Karenni) State, named “Operation 1111”, while the AA, in apparent solidarity with the TBA and Karenni forces, attacked several military posts in Rakhine State, with similar success. The Tatmadaw is also struggling against offensives in the Chin, Kachin and Mon states as various People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) – the armed units of the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by the ousted government – operating in Tanintharyi Region announced the formation of the Southern Brothers Army. The territory under the nominal control of the SAC has shrunk to Myanmar’s heavily populated and economically important heartland – a corridor running from Mandalay in the north, through the capital, Naypyitaw, to Yangon in the south. The EAOs and PDFs have expanded their control over seven of Myanmar’s states – Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine and Shan – as well as parts of Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi. Rebel groups have also wrested some control of major roadways to Myanmar’s neighbours, Bangladesh, China, India, and Thailand.