러시아ㆍ유라시아

Official GDP growth remains strong but masks significant challenges. Growth has decelerated slightly in the first half of 2018 but remains above 6 per cent according to official figures. However, the economy is exposed to considerable external and fiscal pressures.

A partial recovery in export earnings in 2018 has been insufficient to ease foreign exchange scarcity. This is reflected in the rapid depreciation of the unofficial exchange rate to between 16 and 17 manats per US dollar (September 2018) versus the official peg of 3.5 manats to the dollar.

The construction of alternative gas export routes is progressing slowly. Work has started in 2018 on Line D of the Central Asia-China pipeline and the Afghan section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. Further progress remains complicated by the lack of financing as well as security concerns. However, officials of Russia’s Gazprom have announced the renewal of Turkmen gas exports to Russia from 2019 onwards.