러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[경제] Estimation of Non-Observable Economic Variables in EDB Member Countries
러시아ㆍ유라시아 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Eurasian Development Bank 발간일 : 2020-09-24 등록일 : 2021-03-13 원문링크
The implementation of any State’s economic policy involves first developing short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasts, as well as socio-economic development programs. Their quality is largely dependent on credible assessments of the current economic setting, whose findings will then inform the forecasts. Proper identification of the business cycle, monetary, and fiscal situation as well as those factors affecting economic processes is instrumental to the attainment of the monetary and fiscal policy objectives.
Indicators describing the state of the economy, such as the output gap and its potential growth, monetary conditions, the neutral interest rate and real equilibrium exchange rate, are non-observable, as there are no direct statistical data on them. Their values may vary over time and will depend on a broad range of factors. That results in complicated calculations of the non-observable variables and in assessments with considerable confidence intervals. The assessments use special econometric methods among which filtering is the most common one.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
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