러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[국제관계] Armenia and Azerbaijan: Between war and peace
아르메니아 / 아제르바이잔 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - European Parilament Think Tank 발간일 : 2023-06-02 등록일 : 2023-07-14 원문링크
Ever since the end of the Cold War, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, in the longest-running conflict in the post-Soviet space. Two bloody war episodes, in 1992 and in 2020, have alternated with periods of frozen conflict over three decades, amidst the inability of the international community to find a political settlement. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has further altered the power balance in the region, creating a dangerous security vacuum and intensifying the need for renewed international mediation towards a comprehensive political settlement. Violent clashes in September 2022, including an incursion by Azerbaijan into Armenian territory, prompted the EU to step up its presence in the region significantly. A new fully fledged civilian mission in Armenia (EUMA Armenia) was deployed in February 2023. The EU has meanwhile taken on a prominent mediation role in the negotiations. Mediation talks, in various formats, have continued during 2022 and 2023, against a background of regular and increasingly violent clashes, with both sides attempting to improve their negotiating positions at the table. The blockade since December 2022 of the Lachin corridor by pro-Azerbaijani activists, followed by the establishment of a checkpoint by Azerbaijan in April 2023, have put additional pressure on Yerevan (and Stepanakert) to agree on a peace deal on Baku's terms. Under EU mediation, complemented by US talks, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on 14 May 2023 to a longer-term negotiation plan for a comprehensive peace agreement. The final statement included their unequivocal commitment to the 1991 Almaty Declaration and their 'respective territorial integrity'. Some experts see the details of the statement as a potential breakthrough in the peace talks, while others warn of the heavy price-tag for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the potential political costs for Armenia itself.
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