러시아ㆍ유라시아

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in Kazakhstan climbed to the highest levels in decades, boosted by a series of global shocks and highly accommodative domestic policies. Receding inflation around the world and tighter policies have led to disinflation also in Kazakhstan, although inflation remains elevated. This paper applies a series of statistical and econometric methods to quantify the drivers of inflation, confirming the roles of external and domestic factors. With inflation still above target, unanchored inflation expectations, and a highly uncertain global environment, monetary policy should not be relaxed prematurely while other macroeconomic policies should also support the disinflation process. Administrative measures to control inflation should be avoided. To reduce the volatility of inflation, efforts to strengthen Kazakhstan’s inflation targeting framework should continue.