러시아ㆍ유라시아

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a surge in exports from around the world to countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. This export boom is so large that it cannot conceivably be targeting domestic demand in these countries. Admittedly, the evidence is circumstantial, but it seems highly likely that this export boom reflects transshipment of goods to Russia. We use the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) direction of trade data to show just how massive these transshipments are. Countries in the European Union—especially Germany and Italy—are the main drivers of this transshipment trade among advanced economies, while Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States have seen less of an export spike. Compared to the size of total exports, these transshipments are a rounding error for Germany and Italy. There is little reason therefore to think that prohibiting this trade would have material adverse repercussions on either country, while these goods may be disproportionately important for Russia.