아프리카ㆍ중동

The aim of this paper is to econometrically examine the impact of fluctuations of oil exports and its expansion on Algerian economic growth. The model of “an export as an engine of growth” is applied to total output as well as sectoral outputs. The technique of a Koyck distributed lag scheme was used and the main results can be illustrated as following: The growth rates of all Algerian sectors were much higher during the periods of rise in oil prices than during the period of oil recession. The regression results suggest that the coefficient of oil exports is highly significant in all periods except in the recession period (1986-1998). There are spread effects from oil exports to the rest of the economy during the periods that enjoyed high oil prices (1973-1985 and 1999-2010). When the component effects are excluded, the results of sectoral output investigation indicate that there is no evidence of spread effects of oil exports to the rest of the economy. The coefficient of the dummy variables in the equations of trade sector and manufacturing sector are statistically significant, which suggest that the intercept of these sectors have risen during periods of increase in export prices.