중남미

In this paper we develop a macroeconomic model that can provide a quantitative underpinning to the MT framework and be used as an analytical framework for policy analysis. We calibrate the model to the Uruguayan economy and run a number of policyrelevant exercises.

First, we filter data through the model to provide a structural interpretation of inflation dynamics in recent years, with an emphasis on the role of monetary

policy (both pre-MT and in the quarters following its adoption).

The objective is to understand why the previous framework did not succeed in stabilizing inflation and to draw the conclusions to help inform the design of successor regimes. Second, we use the model to 2 Core CPI inflation excludes fruit, vegetable, and administered price inflation.

5 construct a macroeconomic projection for Uruguay, with a focus on the paths for money growth and short-term interest rates that are needed to steer inflation back to the target over the medium term. Third, we use the model to study how the implementation of MT can affect the stance of policy.