중남미

For how long time Hugo Chávez's policy could remain and continue? Chavez has a typical feature as one Latin American ‘populist caudillo’. He entered politics, his opposition style and populist rhetoric served him well. Someone says, he is a dictator who has a strong desire to continue to remain in the ‘centralization of power’. He has a broad base of support, but his followers are not uneducated. If the oil price falls and the economy slumps, they may not support him anymore. The political scramble and strife are accelerated, and the polarization between the wealthy and poor can be deepening. With this socialistic principles become a problem. He chose a third path and his view is a simple nationalistic society. But people whom he appoints to his staff members are hardline socialists. Because of American politics and economical disturbances, he also has an anti-American sentiment. If oil prices fall from the international standards in recession, he will lose some of his controlling influenc on the country. The fund of welfare policy to spend on missions decreases, the prices of commodities will get increase, and the employment structure becomes worse. The country's risk in the index ‘EMBI’ worses and the foreign capital supply may become more difficult. If the situation becomes eminent, people start questioning his role of power.