[경제학] Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - European Central Bank 발간일 : 2020-05-15 등록일 : 2020-05-30 원문링크
This paper analyses the endogeneity of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. In this framework, total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a consequence of costly investment in R&D and adoption of new technologies. We find that the endogeneity of TFP induces a high degree of persistence in the euro area business cycle via a feedback mechanism between overall economic conditions and investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. As to the sources of the euro area productivity slowdown, we conclude that a decrease in the efficiency of R&D investment is among the key factors generating the pre-crisis productivity slowdown, while starting from the Great Recession a shock to liquidity demand is identified as the most important driving force. The endogenous technology mechanism further exerts a dampening effect on the inflation response following a recessionary shock and hence has important implications for both the negligible fall in inflation during the Great Recession, as well as the sluggish increase of inflation in the subsequent recovery.
|출처||European Central Bank|
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