중동부유럽
연구정보
[경제] Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-up in the EU
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - CEPR 발간일 : 2022-03-22 등록일 : 2022-04-20 원문링크
We study the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes of EU Member States since the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) until the start of the coronavirus crisis. We consider first budget-balance errors, which we then split into expenditure and revenue errors. Next, we split the latter two into "base", "growth" and "denominator" effects. The most important explanatory variable is the GDP growth error: more optimism in GDP growth projections produces more optimistic budgetary projections. This effect goes beyond a mechanical denominator effect on spending and revenues as shares of GDP; it also works through the numerator of these ratios. Our findings may call for delegating the construction of output projections to adequately equipped national independent fiscal institutions. Finally, we explore how independent fiscal institutions shape projection errors. Those with high media impact producing or assessing the macroeconomic forecast appear to lead to actual budgetary improvement relative to projections.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [정책] 2021년 OECD 농업정책 평가: EU | 2022-04-13 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [정책] EU 금융당국의 Platform 감독 동향 | 2022-04-20 |
