중동부유럽
연구정보
[경제] Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - CEPR 발간일 : 2022-07-20 등록일 : 2022-08-03 원문링크
This paper assesses the possible development of government interest expenditures as a share of GDP for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, these and other member states could anticipate a further reduction of interest expenditure in the future. This outlook has changed considerably with the recent surge in inflation and government bond rates. Nevertheless, under reasonable assumptions current yield curves still imply that interest expenditure relative to GDP can be stabilized at the current level. We also review the implications of a further upward shift in the yield curves of 1 or 2 percentage points. They suggest significant medium-term risks for highly indebted member states with interest expenditure approaching or exceeding levels last observed on the eve of the euro area debt crisis. In light of these risks, governments of euro area member states should take substantive action to achieve a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP ratios towards safer levels. They bear the responsibility for making sure that government finances can weather the higher interest rates which are required to achieve price stability in the euro area.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [경제] (슬로바키아-브라티슬라바) 2022출장정보 | 2022-08-03 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [정책] OECD Investment Policy Review: Bulgaria | 2022-08-03 |
