러시아ㆍ유라시아

Following some strengthening of growth in Europe and Central Asia, Tajikistan has benefitted from it and demonstrated good economic performance last year and in early 2024. As external demand has improved, the economy of Tajikistan grew by 8.3 percent in 2023 and 8.2 percent during the first quarter of 2024. This was driven mainly by higher gold export revenue, private consumption and increased public infrastructure spending. Domestic demand has been supported by an increase in the inflow of workers’ remittances and a higher public wage bill in 2023, contributing to further poverty reduction. Domestic consumer-price inflation has benefited from subsiding global food and fuel prices and some tightening of monetary policy. Increased external grant support from development partners has helped to maintain fiscal discipline, leading to a further decline in public debt. Risks to the economic outlook include a potential escalation of global and regional tensions and the Russian Federation's tighter migration policies, both of which could affect labor migration and give rise to energy price increases and higher logistics costs. Outdated price regulation methodologies in natural monopoly sectors dominated by SOEs undermine efficiency and hinder market competition. It is important for Tajikistan to align regulations with pro-competition principles and update tariff-setting methods to incentivize efficiency and operational performance improvements. Addressing these challenges requires clear policies to ensure competitive neutrality, transparency in state aid distribution, and reforms to promote fair competition and market efficiency. Tajikistan can unlock its economic potential and foster sustainable growth by fostering a level playing field for all businesses.