Abstract

Myanmar for months has been immersed in intense political maneuvering with the first general elections since the country’s transition to civilian rule expected to take place in October or November. The spotlight has been on opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s inability to contest the presidency, whether President Thein Sein will contemplate another term, and the increasingly open competition among those two and the country’s other top leaders—parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann and Commander-in-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing.

Equally important, however, is the way Myanmar’s armed forces will behave in the lead-up to and following the polls. What Min Aung Hlaing and the military decide to do will probably be the single most decisive factor in whether Myanmar will be able to move its fledgling reform process along.

Issues surrounding the military have long been controversial in Washington. As Myanmar begins a critical year, many administration officials are convinced the United States should not pull back from its current engagement with the country. Washington has, to some extent, been prepared for a less-than-perfect outcome, provided elections take place in a sufficiently inclusive, transparent, and credible manner. Yet if the military overplays its hand, it will become difficult to convince key constituencies in Washington, especially in the U.S. Congress, that the United States should continue to pursue engagement with Myanmar for the long haul.