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연구정보

Nowcasting Indonesia

인도네시아 국외연구자료 기타 - ADB 발간일 : 2015-12-18 등록일 : 2015-12-18 원문링크

In this paper, state of the art techniques for nowcasting Indonesia's GDP growth have been applied.

We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on indicators closely watched by market operators over the period of 2002–2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators of current economic conditions, Indonesia presents additional challenges typical to emerging market economies where data are often scant and unreliable. By means of a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise, we show that our predictions are comparable to those of market operators. Careful selection of indicators is also shown to be crucial for better forecast performance when data quality is low.

본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP)EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.

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