연구정보
[경제] Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023: Robust Growth with Moderating Inflation
동남아시아 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Asian Development Bank 발간일 : 2023-07-19 등록일 : 2023-07-23 원문링크
Exports from developing Asia weakened in the first quarter of 2023 as global demand slowed. However, consumption and investment are forecast to boost aggregate regional growth to 4.8% in 2023, as earlier forecast, with the projection for 2024 revised down only marginally to 4.7%.
Given balancing developments, growth forecasts for East Asia are maintained at 4.6% in 2023 and at 4.2% in 2024, for South Asia at 5.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024, and for the Pacific at 3.3% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
Southeast Asia’s growth prospects are downgraded slightly from 4.7% to 4.6% in 2023 and from 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, reflecting weaker global demand for manufactured exports.
Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central Asia are adjusted down from 4.4% to 4.3% in 2023 and from 4.6% to 4.4% in 2024 after oil production in Azerbaijan fell more than expected.
Headline inflation eased toward pre-pandemic averages as fuel and food prices waned.
With lower inflation in developing Asia and more moderate monetary tightening in the United States, most central banks in the region have kept policy rates steady this year, with signs emerging of a shift toward easier money.
Interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies are likely to shape the regional growth outlook, with upside and downside risks in balance.
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