중동부유럽

The economy risks a hard landing. Measures undertaken by the government to revive consumption and investment led to a surge in domestic demand in 2017 and early 2018, but overheating concerns became evident as inflation surged to 15-year highs in 2018 and the current account deficit expanded to over 6 per cent of GDP.

The lira has depreciated substantially and remains volatile. Concerns over macroeconomic imbalances and geopolitical tensions led the lira to depreciate by over 40 per cent at one point since the start of 2018. While aggressive monetary tightening has reversed some of the depreciation, the currency has remained volatile.

There has been limited progress in structural reforms. Over the past year, economic policy has mainly focused on reviving consumption and investment. The recent New Economic Programme (NEP) sets out credible proposals for structural reform for the coming three years, but the government’s commitment to implementation remains to be seen.