아프리카ㆍ중동

After a 9 percent contraction over the previous two years, interim sanctions relief and prudent policies eased constraints on trade and financial transactions, improved economic activity, and lowered inflation in 2014/15. Although the decline in oil prices has negatively affected economic activity in 2015/16, the comprehensive agreement between Iran and the P5+1, if implemented successfully, should improve Iran’s external environment and economic performance substantially going forward. However, Iran faces multiple constraints to unleash its growth potential and to achieve single-digit inflation sustainably. The economy’s dependency on hydrocarbons remains high, the policy framework is not well-designed to respond to shocks, and structural vulnerabilities abound. Corporate and bank balance sheets are weak, unemployment is high, particularly among youth and women, and doing business is costly. Placing the Iranian economy among the top emerging market economies over the next decades will require comprehensive reforms.