러시아ㆍ유라시아

CST(Collective Security Treaty Organization) that consists of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan was established to prevent security vacuum of CIS after the USSR collapsed but has become a more scrap of paper because of the chaos of the transition period. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan withdrew from CST, because Russia was not able to manage this organization during the Yeltsin years. When Putin was in power, CSTO was upgraded from CST and has begun to grow. Especially CSTO was expected to have an influence on global order, because CSTO has RRF(Rapid Reaction Forces) and Peacekeeping. Overall, CSTO has been underestimated by international society in contrast to these expectations and the West has estimated that CSTO is not more intimidating than SCO. We are able to infer the cause of these evaluations from incomprehensible two cases. First, According to the charter and treaty of CSTO, when nonmember state attacks a member state of CSTO, it needs to take quick actions against nonmember state. But when Georgia attacked Russia in 2008, CSTO didn't intervene in this war. Second, when ethnic dispute between the Kirghiz and the Uzbek was raised in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, interim president Roza Otunbayeva called for intervention of CSTO. But Dmitry Medvedev, Russian president, turned down her request. Actually CSTO has had no experiences in disputed area until now. For these reasons, maybe CSTO has been underestimated by international society. The purpose of this research analyzes these causes. This research is going to get factors and analyze them as follows. First, preceding studies that connected with CSTO are analyzed and the character of CSTO is defined by the theories of international security. Second, the process of the development and character of CSTO are analyzed and the upgrading and the process of CSTO are presented. Third, case-by-case problems that were happened in disputed area will be analyzed and the identity of CSTO will be revealed. This is connected with understanding the substance of CSTO. Forth, CSTO will be estimated by these analyses and the change of global order in Eurasia after the withdrawal of U.S. in 2014 army from Afghanistan will be predicted from the standpoint of Russia and CSTO.