러시아ㆍ유라시아

We discuss two high-profile public–private partnership projects in Tajikistan—the Dushanbe-Chanak motor toll road and Pamir Energy hydropower projects. An impact evaluation exercise was conducted for the Dushanbe–Chanak road using difference-in-difference estimates. The impact of the road on gross regional product, regional budget revenues and expenditures, and retail trade is estimated. Data were collected for the period 2000‒2017 from the Regions of Tajikistan Statistical Bulletin compiled by the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Tajikistan. The results show that the treatment regions’ (Sughd and DRS regions) gross regional product increased by 26% compared with the control regions (Khatlon and GBAO). The positive impact of the Dushanbe-Chanak toll road on regional budget revenues and expenditures is even larger, ranging from 29% to 42%. The quantitative impact analysis shows that the Dushanbe–Chanak toll road has had a positive impact on local economies overall, but relatively high toll charges in the absence of a free alternative road may have prevented greater economic impact on the most vulnerable groups of the population.