아프리카ㆍ중동

There have been few shifts in the landscape of Libya’s numerous hybrid armed groups in the past year. In the aftermath of the devastation wreaked by Storm Daniel, which in September 2023 took the lives of more than 5,000 with over 8,000 still missing, mostly in Derna, there was a glimmer of hope, since extinguished, that Libya’s armed factions would come together for the sake of the country. Although the October 2020 cease-fire continues to hold broadly, and its authors — the members of the Joint Military Commission — continue to meet, some of the agreement’s demands have yet to be fulfilled, notably the withdrawal of foreign forces and mercenaries. A large-scale return to violence, such as witnessed between 2019-2020, is probably not in the cards, due in part to an assumed tacit arrangement between Russia and Turkey.