아프리카ㆍ중동
연구정보
[외교/안보] Impacts of the Ukraine-Russian Crises on Food Security in Kenya and Ethiopia: Options for Regional Trade Collaboration
케냐 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - African Economic Research Consortium 발간일 : 2024-05-16 등록일 : 2024-05-16 원문링크
This study examined the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on household welfare and food poverty in Kenya and Ethiopia. From a macro perspective, it used an inflation model for both countries to analyse the impact of cereal supply as well as foreign price rise on inflation, which in turn affects household welfare. It found the inflationary impact of the war on both countries. In addition, using a micro approach, it was considered that the effects were transmitted through heightened wheat and wheat product prices at the global markets into the household consumption basket by changing the price of domestic wheat and wheat products. The impacts of food security and welfare effects are simulated by employing available national household budget data. The results of the study indicate that the effects filtered through the international prices of wheat with domestic prices of wheat and wheat products responding in sync with the suppressed global wheat supply, which exerted pressure on the price of wheat and wheat-related products. The study finds marginal effects on welfare loss and food poverty, gap, and severity (just a 1 percentage point increase in poverty in both countries, irrespective of the divide in both countries. However, effects are disproportional considering whether a household is male or female-headed or located in urban or rural areas. The study did not estimate the indirect effects but analyzed some of them, and their detrimental impact is discussed.
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