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[경제] Egypt - Country Climate and Development Report : Background Note - A People-Centered Green Transformation
이집트 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2023-03-14 등록일 : 2023-04-21 원문링크
The 2022 World Bank Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Egypt highlights three emerging features at the intersection of climate and development challenges in the country. The first is high uncertainty around the timing and volume of Nile River water available to Egypt due to climate change impacts. This is a crucial concern, given that 97 percent of Egypt’s freshwater resources come from the Nile. Second, key challenges and opportunities for climate adaptation lie in cities and coastal areas, as more than 7 in 10 Egyptians living in urban areas are exposed to at least one major climate risk. Third, while Egypt’s contribution to global emissions is not high, emissions are still tightly linked with economic growth, bringing uncertainty in light of shifting preferences in international markets for greener and lower-carbon-content products. This note presents a summary of background analyses conducted to assess the potential distributional implications of climate change in Egypt. The note first describes recent poverty trends and key challenges for poverty reduction in Egypt. It then highlights the main channels of impact from climate change, such as rising prices for food and services, and identifies areas for policy attention. Finally, the paper discusses the effects of climate change and green transformation in Egypt’s labor market. The note highlights that a people-centered green transformation, which should ensure a focus on the most vulnerable, will require income support, reskilling, and upskilling. Climate change adaptation and mitigation actions in Egypt would have distributional implications via two important channels: changes in the prices of food and other inelastic goods, and changes in the labor market due to the impacts of climate change on productivity, as well as the effects of the green transformation of some sectors. Higher food prices are a source of concern not only because of their direct effects on households’ budgets but also due to the fiscal implications of Egypt’s food subsidy program. Moreover, the poor are more engaged in informal, agricultural, and brown activities that will likely be directly impacted by climate change. Such climate impacts may occur through high heat and droughts affecting agricultural and food production, for example, but also indirectly, through potential transitions toward greener production practices. Equipping Egypt’s human capital with the required skills will be a critical element in implementing the transition to decarbonization across different sectors, and in creating awareness and encouraging positive behaviors for both adaptation and mitigation.
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